Jimmy Garoppolo TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jimmy Garoppolo

NFL · Player Props

Jimmy Garoppolo

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 22, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jimmy Garoppolo TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 7th-most in football.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest clip in the league versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year (73.9%).
The Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded the most passing touchdowns in the league: 1.70 per game this year.

Favors Under

The 49ers are an enormous 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the least pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 52.8% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.

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