Jimmy Garoppolo TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Jimmy Garoppolo

NFL · Player Props

Jimmy Garoppolo

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Jimmy Garoppolo TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-113/-113).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered the 9th-most TDs through the air in football: 1.62 per game this year.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have utilized some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their plays since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-least pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 54.3% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.

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