Jimmy Garoppolo Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jimmy Garoppolo

NFL · Player Props

Jimmy Garoppolo

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Jimmy Garoppolo Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-108/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 128.2 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.
After accounting for 6.2% of his team's carries last season, Jimmy Garoppolo has played a bigger part in the rushing attack this season, currently making up 12.2%.
In regards to blocking for rushers (and the significance it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Raiders grades out as the 3rd-best in the league last year.
Jimmy Garoppolo's 7.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year conveys a a meaningful gain in his rushing proficiency over last year's 1.0 rate.
Jimmy Garoppolo's rushing effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, accumulating 2.78 adjusted yards-per-carry vs just 0.69 rate last year.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Las Vegas Raiders to run on 39.2% of their downs: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Raiders this year (a lowly 53.0 per game on average).
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, New England's unit has been outstanding this year, profiling as the best in the NFL.

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