Jimmy Garoppolo Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jimmy Garoppolo

NFL · Player Props

Jimmy Garoppolo

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jimmy Garoppolo Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-116/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 6th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 43.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons defense owns the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, giving up 5.06 yards-per-carry.
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers rank as the 8th-worst unit in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
Jimmy Garoppolo has averaged just 1.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest marks in the league among QBs (9th percentile).

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