Jerry Jeudy Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jerry Jeudy

NFL · Player Props

Jerry Jeudy

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerry Jeudy Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-139/+107).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -139 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will be rolling with backup QB Brett Rypien in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
Jerry Jeudy has been less involved as a potential target this year (88.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (77.4%).
THE BLITZ projects Jerry Jeudy to total 6.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 75th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 22-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 10th-least in football.
Jerry Jeudy's receiving performance has worsened this year, averaging just 2.8 yards per game compared to 3.8 last year.
Jerry Jeudy's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.0% to 47.7%.

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