Jerry Jeudy Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jerry Jeudy

NFL · Player Props

Jerry Jeudy

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM EST

Analysis

Jerry Jeudy Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects Jerry Jeudy to total 6.0 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among WRs.
Jerry Jeudy has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 18.9% since the start of last season, which places him in the 76th percentile among wideouts.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Completion% in football (68.4%) to WRs since the start of last season (68.4%).
The Denver Broncos offensive line has allowed their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 57.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 61.0 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
Jerry Jeudy's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.0% to 47.4%.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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