Jerry Jeudy Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Jerry Jeudy

NFL · Player Props

Jerry Jeudy

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerry Jeudy Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-140/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jerry Jeudy to accumulate 7.9 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among wideouts.
Jerry Jeudy has been an integral part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 21.3% this year, which puts him in the 80th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Jerry Jeudy's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.0% to 66.0%.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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