Jerry Jeudy Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Jerry Jeudy

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerry Jeudy Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+114/-144).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
Jerry Jeudy has gone out for fewer passes this season (89.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (77.4%).
THE BLITZ projects Jerry Jeudy to accumulate 7.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Completion% in football (72%) versus wide receivers this year (72.0%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jerry Jeudy's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 70.0% to 56.5%.
The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 8th-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.