Jerry Jeudy Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Jerry Jeudy

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerry Jeudy Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+221/-343).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -322 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -343.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Jerry Jeudy to be a more important option in his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (16.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.4% in games he has played).
Jerry Jeudy has been responsible for a whopping 24.1% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 80th percentile among WRs.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Completion% in football (68.4%) to WRs since the start of last season (68.4%).
The Denver Broncos offensive line has allowed their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 57.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 61.0 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
Jerry Jeudy's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.0% to 47.4%.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.