Jerry Jeudy Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Jerry Jeudy

NFL · Player Props

Jerry Jeudy

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM EST

Analysis

Jerry Jeudy Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-210).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Jerry Jeudy to be much more involved in his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (19.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (10.6% in games he has played).
Jerry Jeudy has been responsible for a colossal 25.2% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 80th percentile among wideouts.
Jerry Jeudy's 47.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 76th percentile for WRs.
The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos O-line has afforded their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Broncos are an enormous 10-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.43 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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