Jerry Jeudy Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Jerry Jeudy

NFL · Player Props

Jerry Jeudy

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerry Jeudy Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-350).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
Jerry Jeudy has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 21.9% this year, which ranks him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.
Jerry Jeudy has totaled many more air yards this year (78.0 per game) than he did last year (57.0 per game).

Favors Under

Jerry Jeudy's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.0% to 58.6%.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 6th-best collection of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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