Jerry Jeudy Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Jerry Jeudy

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving TD

Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerry Jeudy Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+252/-410).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -388 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -410.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
Jerry Jeudy has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 26.9% this year, which places him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
Jerry Jeudy has posted quite a few more air yards this year (91.0 per game) than he did last year (57.0 per game).
Jerry Jeudy's 53.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 81st percentile for wideouts.
Jerry Jeudy ranks in the 84th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.38 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jerry Jeudy's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 70.0% to 56.5%.
The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 8th-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.