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Jerome Ford

Jerome Ford Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns

Jerome Ford Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+670/-1300).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1300 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1300.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Browns are a huge 10-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

The predictive model expects the Browns to be the most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 67.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Cleveland Browns have run the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 62.2 plays per game.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (34.5 per game) since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Browns to call the 10th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The projections expect Jerome Ford to be a less important option in his offense's pass attack near the goal line in this contest (5.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).

When talking about air yards, Jerome Ford ranks in the measly 14th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, totaling just -2.0 per game.

With an atrocious rate of just 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Jerome Ford places as one of the bottom receiving TD-scorers in the league among running backs this year.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in football against the Lions defense since the start of last season (67.6% Adjusted Completion%).

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