Jerome Ford Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jerome Ford

NFL · Player Props

Jerome Ford

RB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 4:01 PM EST

Analysis

Jerome Ford Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 36.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.8% run rate.
The 2nd-most plays in the league have been called by the Browns this year (a whopping 66.2 per game on average).
Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being projected in this game) typically cause decreased passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
The predictive model expects Jerome Ford to be a much bigger part of his offense's ground game in this contest (46.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (36.3% in games he has played).
The Browns offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in football last year at run-game blocking.

Favors Under

The Browns may take to the air less in this game (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup quarterback PJ Walker.
A passing game script is suggested by the Browns being a -6.5-point underdog this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Browns to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has had the best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, conceding just 3.50 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 8th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

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