Jerome Ford Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Jerome Ford

NFL · Player Props

Jerome Ford

RB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerome Ford Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-141/+108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 41.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns to be the 7th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 41.9% run rate.
The predictive model expects the Browns to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 26.81 seconds per play.
After taking on 1.9% of his offense's run game usage last year, Jerome Ford has been called on more in the rushing attack this year, now taking on 36.8%.
In regards to run-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the Cleveland Browns ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL last year.
With a terrific record of 48.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (77th percentile), Jerome Ford places as one of the leading RBs in the league this year.

Favors Under

This game's line implies a passing game script for the Browns, who are -6-point underdogs.
With a dreadful rate of 3.57 adjusted yards per carry (22nd percentile) this year, Jerome Ford rates among the worst RBs in football at the position.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 88.0 per game) versus the Ravens defense this year.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Baltimore's group of DTs has been outstanding this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

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