Jerome Ford Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jerome Ford

NFL · Player Props

Jerome Ford

RB · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns · Week 5, 2024

Updated Oct 6, 2024 11:31 PM EST

Analysis

Jerome Ford Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -100 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Browns to be the 6th-most pass-focused team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 62.8% pass rate.
Right now, the 5th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Browns.
The model projects Jerome Ford to garner 4.3 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
Jerome Ford's 21.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 16.1.
Jerome Ford's 84.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this season conveys a substantial gain in his receiving proficiency over last season's 72.8% figure.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
When it comes to pass protection (and the importance it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Cleveland Browns ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year.
Jerome Ford's 4.1 adjusted yards per target this season illustrates a significant drop-off in his pass-catching talent over last season's 5.1 figure.
As it relates to linebackers rushing the passer, Washington's group of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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