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Jerome Ford

Jerome Ford Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs

Jerome Ford Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs this week, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Browns to pass on 79.0% of their opportunities: the greatest clip among all teams this week.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 148.3 plays on offense run: the highest number on the slate this week.

The largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Browns this year (a massive 62.8 per game on average).

With an impressive 51.0% Route Participation Rate (89th percentile) this year, Jerome Ford places as one of the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) generally mean lessened passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased rush volume.

As it relates to pass protection (and the significance it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Browns ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.

Jerome Ford has been one of the least effective pass-catchers in the NFL among running backs, averaging just 4.46 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 16th percentile.

This year, the strong Chiefs defense has allowed a measly 20.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the fewest in the NFL.

This year, the daunting Kansas City Chiefs defense has conceded the least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing RBs: a mere 4.7 yards.

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