Jerome Ford Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Jerome Ford

RB · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 8, 2024 11:11 PM EST

Analysis

Jerome Ford Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by our trusted projection set to have 134.7 total plays run: the most among all games this week.
The highest number of plays in football have been called by the Browns last year (a whopping 63.8 per game on average).
With an elite 46.7% Route Participation% (82nd percentile) last year, Jerome Ford rates as one of the pass-game running backs with the highest volume in the league.
The model projects Jerome Ford to accumulate 3.2 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs.
When talking about air yards, Jerome Ford ranks in the lofty 88th percentile among RBs last year, averaging an impressive 2.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Browns as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense last year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
With a poor 5.42 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (12th percentile) last year, Jerome Ford stands among the top pass-game RBs in the NFL in picking up extra yardage.
Last year, the tough Dallas Cowboys defense has given up a mere 25.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 4th-fewest in the league.