Jerome Ford Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Jerome Ford

RB · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Chicago Bears · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 3:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerome Ford Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cleveland Browns are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 66.2 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
The highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Browns this year (a colossal 66.2 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game against the Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
The model projects Jerome Ford to notch 3.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
When talking about air yards, Jerome Ford ranks in the towering 88th percentile among RBs this year, averaging a staggering 2.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more remarkable than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Browns to pass on 55.5% of their chances: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Jerome Ford comes in as one of the worst possession receivers in football when it comes to running backs, hauling in a mere 71.7% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 19th percentile.
Jerome Ford comes in as one of the least efficient receivers in the NFL when it comes to RBs, averaging just 4.69 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 14th percentile.