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Jerome Ford Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-111/-116).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -116.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Browns have called the most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 66.9 plays per game.When talking about air yards, Jerome Ford ranks in the lofty 95th percentile among RBs this year, accruing a colossal 4.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).Jerome Ford ranks in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) with an astounding 16.5 mark this year.The Cleveland O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game statistics across the board.The Denver Broncos defense has conceded the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (43.0) to running backs this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Browns to pass on 52.0% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.The leading projections forecast the Browns to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Denver Broncos, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.9 per game) this year.With a poor 69.1% Adjusted Catch Rate (9th percentile) this year, Jerome Ford places as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football among running backs.With a poor 4.6 adjusted yards per target (23rd percentile) this year, Jerome Ford has been as one of the worst RBs in the pass game in the NFL.
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