Jerome Ford Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Jerome Ford

NFL · Player Props

Jerome Ford

RB · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerome Ford Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line implies a passing game script for the Browns, who are -6-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Browns to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 26.81 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
The leading projections forecast Jerome Ford to accumulate 3.9 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
When talking about air yards, Jerome Ford grades out in the lofty 98th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a colossal 6.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

Favors Under

The model projects the Cleveland Browns as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
With a poor 70.2% Adjusted Completion Rate (11th percentile) this year, Jerome Ford rates as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league among RBs.
This year, the tough Ravens pass defense has allowed the 6th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing RBs: a measly 6.4 YAC.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Baltimore's group of safeties has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the best in football.

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