Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jerick McKinnon

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-105/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Chiefs O-line ranks as the best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 8th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 37.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs to run the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jerick McKinnon has been much less involved in his team's run game this year (1.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (18.7%).
The Jets defense owns the 8th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing just 3.70 yards-per-carry.
Jets defensive ends project as the 7th-best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

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