Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jerick McKinnon

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
The leading projections forecast Jerick McKinnon to be a much bigger part of his team's running game in this week's contest (21.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.2% in games he has played).
The Kansas City offensive line ranks as the best in the league last year at executing run-blocking assingments.

Favors Under

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 38.0% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Jerick McKinnon's 4.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season represents a noteworthy drop-off in his rushing ability over last season's 18.0 rate.
Jerick McKinnon rates as one of the bottom RBs in the NFL at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a mere 2.13 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 24th percentile.
This year, the anemic New England Patriots run defense has been gouged for a staggering 3.51 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition's run game: the 31st-biggest rate in the league.
The Patriots safeties grade out as the best safety corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

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