Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jerick McKinnon

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 10:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Chiefs O-line profiles as the best in the league last year at run-game blocking.

Favors Under

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 36.3% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Jerick McKinnon has been much less involved in his team's rushing attack this year (5.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (18.7%).
Jerick McKinnon's 2.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year shows a noteable reduction in his running ability over last year's 18.0 figure.
This year, the daunting Philadelphia Eagles run defense has conceded a measly 66.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the best in the league.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles rank as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

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