Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jerick McKinnon

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 8, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The Detroit Lions defense owns the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, yielding 5.36 yards-per-carry.
The Detroit Lions safeties grade out as the 27th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 36.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Jerick McKinnon has been among the worst running backs in the league at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging just 2.26 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 24th percentile.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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