Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Jerick McKinnon has been a more important option in his team's rushing attack this year (21.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (4.5%).
Jerick McKinnon has run for significantly more yards per game (19.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 6th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 38.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have rushed for the least yards in the NFL (just 86 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends project as the best DE corps in football this year in regard to defending the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.