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Jerick McKinnon

Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Chiefs are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Jerick McKinnon has been a more important option in his team's rushing attack this year (21.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (4.5%).
  • Jerick McKinnon has run for significantly more yards per game (19.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 6th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 38.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Opposing teams have rushed for the least yards in the NFL (just 86 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
  • The Tennessee Titans defensive ends project as the best DE corps in football this year in regard to defending the run.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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