Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Jerick McKinnon has been much more involved in his team's rushing attack this season (22.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (4.5%).
Jerick McKinnon has rushed for a lot more yards per game (20.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 35.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has had the best efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up just 3.37 yards-per-carry.
The San Francisco 49ers safeties profile as the best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.