Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-107/-124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Jerick McKinnon has been a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this year (23.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (4.5%).
Jerick McKinnon has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (24.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 34.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 2nd-least yards in the NFL (just 76 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The Buffalo Bills defensive ends profile as the 5th-best DE corps in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.