Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jerick McKinnon

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-109/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a massive 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 10th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
Jerick McKinnon has been a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this year (20.2% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (4.5%).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 36.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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