Jerick McKinnon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jerick McKinnon

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM EST

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-157).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
This year, the porous Broncos pass defense has surrendered a massive 87.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 5th-largest rate in the league.
The Broncos linebackers rank as the worst collection of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Chiefs being a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game.
Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Broncos, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.1 per game) this year.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point diminishment in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Jerick McKinnon has been featured much less in his offense's passing attack.
Jerick McKinnon's 2.0 adjusted catches per game this year represents a substantial decrease in his pass-catching talent over last year's 3.3 rate.

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