Jerick McKinnon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jerick McKinnon

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 61.9% of their chances: the 3rd-highest clip among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 133.2 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
This week, Jerick McKinnon is predicted by the projection model to position himself in the 76th percentile among RBs with 2.9 targets.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 8th-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Jerick McKinnon has been incorporated much less in his offense's pass attack.
Jerick McKinnon's pass-catching performance tailed off this year, averaging a measly 2.0 adjusted catches vs 3.3 last year.
Jerick McKinnon's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 81.5% to 74.2%.

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