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Jerick McKinnon

Jerick McKinnon Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles

Jerick McKinnon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their plays: the 2nd-highest frequency among all teams this week.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.

Opposing offenses have averaged 41.3 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.

The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has given up the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (87.3%) versus RBs this year (87.3%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

Jerick McKinnon's 11.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 18.0.

Jerick McKinnon's 1.9 adjusted catches per game this season conveys a material decrease in his receiving talent over last season's 3.3 rate.

Jerick McKinnon's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 81.5% to 77.0%.

When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's safety corps has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 6th-best in football.

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