Jerick McKinnon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jerick McKinnon

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+158/-200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jerick McKinnon has run more routes this year (40.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (22.3%).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Completion% in the league (87.9%) versus RBs this year (87.9%).

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Jerick McKinnon's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 83.8% to 80.2%.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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