Jerick McKinnon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 11, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jerick McKinnon has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this season (37.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (22.3%).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Jerick McKinnon's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 83.7% to 87.1%.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has afforded their QB 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.