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Jerick McKinnon

Jerick McKinnon Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs

Jerick McKinnon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-175).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 64.8 plays per game.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

The Indianapolis Colts safeties grade out as the 6th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.

The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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