Jerick McKinnon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 12:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-169/+133).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -169.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jerick McKinnon to accrue 5.6 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Jerick McKinnon has been a more integral piece of his team's passing attack this year (11.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (5.7%).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 8.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.