Jerick McKinnon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-121/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 69.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jerick McKinnon to garner 5.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Jerick McKinnon has been much more involved in his offense's passing offense this year (11.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (5.7%).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 12.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the 5th-best group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on just 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.