Jerick McKinnon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jerick McKinnon

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-121/-113).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 10th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jerick McKinnon to accrue 4.1 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.
Jerick McKinnon's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 84.0% to 78.1%.
The Houston Texans pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (71.4%) to RBs this year (71.4%).
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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