My Account Log Out
 
 
Jerick McKinnon

Jerick McKinnon Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Jerick McKinnon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+126/-162).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects Jerick McKinnon to accumulate 5.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
  • Jerick McKinnon has been a more integral piece of his team's passing attack this year (9.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (3.5%).
  • The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in football.
  • Jerick McKinnon's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 83.8% to 78.6%.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2022 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™