Jerick McKinnon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jerick McKinnon

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+126/-162).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jerick McKinnon to accumulate 5.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
Jerick McKinnon has been a more integral piece of his team's passing attack this year (9.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (3.5%).
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in football.
Jerick McKinnon's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 83.8% to 78.6%.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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