Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
When talking about air yards, Jerick McKinnon grades out in the lofty 94th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a massive 4.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
With an impressive 9.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (82nd percentile) this year, Jerick McKinnon places among the best RB receiving threats in the NFL in the open field.
The Denver Broncos defense has conceded the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (51.0) to RBs this year.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency vs. running backs this year, giving up 7.04 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in football.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Chiefs being a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game.
Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Broncos, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.1 per game) this year.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point diminishment in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Jerick McKinnon has been featured much less in his offense's passing attack.
Jerick McKinnon's 16.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year represents a remarkable decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 30.0 rate.