Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jerick McKinnon

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 65.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Jerick McKinnon's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 81.5% to 87.5%.
Jerick McKinnon has been among the most effective pass-catchers in the NFL among running backs, averaging an impressive 7.25 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 84th percentile.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.
Jerick McKinnon's 34.8% Route% this season represents a a noteable decrease in his pass attack usage over last season's 48.5% figure.
Jerick McKinnon has accrued many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (14.0) this season than he did last season (30.0).
This year, the formidable Minnesota Vikings defense has surrendered a meager 17.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the 4th-best in football.
The Vikings safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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