Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Jerick McKinnon has put up a whopping 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 76th percentile among running backs. (This may not seem like very many, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Jerick McKinnon has been among the leading RB receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 29.0 yards per game while checking in at the 96th percentile.
Jerick McKinnon's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 81.5% to 87.5%.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs to run the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jerick McKinnon's 10.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 18.0.
The Jets pass defense has exhibited good efficiency against running backs this year, conceding 4.57 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.
The New York Jets linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.