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Jerick McKinnon

Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs

Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Jerick McKinnon has accumulated a massive 3.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among running backs. (This may not seem like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).

This year, the poor Patriots pass defense has yielded a staggering 89.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the highest rate in the NFL.

This year, the weak Patriots defense has given up the 10th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing running backs: a massive 6.22 yards.

The Patriots safeties grade out as the 9th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.

Jerick McKinnon's 11.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 18.0.

Jerick McKinnon's 17.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year conveys a substantial diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last year's 30.0 figure.

Jerick McKinnon's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 81.5% to 76.3%.

Jerick McKinnon's receiving efficiency has declined this season, accumulating a measly 6.29 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.57 mark last season.

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