Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their plays: the 2nd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.3 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Jerick McKinnon has notched a whopping 4.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among running backs. (That may not seem like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
With a fantastic 8.53 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (75th percentile) this year, Jerick McKinnon rates as one of the top pass-catching running backs in the NFL in space.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Jerick McKinnon's 11.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 18.0.
Jerick McKinnon has put up significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (17.0) this season than he did last season (30.0).
Jerick McKinnon's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 81.5% to 77.0%.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has excelled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.02 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.