Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 8, 2023 1:51 AM EST

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-131/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Jerick McKinnon to notch 4.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
Jerick McKinnon has accrued a monstrous 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Detroit Lions defense has surrendered the least receiving yards per game in football (just 21.0) vs. running backs since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.76 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.