Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jerick McKinnon

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+106/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jerick McKinnon has gone out for more passes this season (41.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (22.3%).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Jerick McKinnon's ability to generate extra yardage has gotten better this year, totaling 11.45 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 6.62 mark last year.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Jerick McKinnon has posted a mere -1.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 24th percentile among running backs.
Jerick McKinnon's pass-catching effectiveness has declined this year, notching a mere 6.57 yards-per-target vs a 7.51 figure last year.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has conceded the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 22.0) versus running backs this year.

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