Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jerick McKinnon

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-100/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jerick McKinnon has run more routes this year (40.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (22.3%).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Jerick McKinnon's talent in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this year, accumulating 11.88 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 6.62 figure last year.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Jerick McKinnon has posted a paltry -1.0 air yards per game this year: just 22nd percentile among RBs.
Jerick McKinnon's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 83.8% to 80.2%.
Jerick McKinnon's receiving efficiency has worsened this year, accumulating just 5.70 yards-per-target vs a 7.51 rate last year.

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