Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jerick McKinnon

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 11:45 PM EST

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jerick McKinnon has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this season (37.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (22.3%).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Jerick McKinnon's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 83.7% to 87.1%.
Jerick McKinnon has been among the top running backs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a stellar 9.16 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 87th percentile.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed the 10th-most receiving yards per game in the league (39.0) to RBs this year.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jerick McKinnon has posted a paltry -2.0 air yards per game this year: just 13th percentile among running backs.
Jerick McKinnon's pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this season, compiling just 5.49 yards-per-target compared to a 7.53 rate last season.

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