Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 64.8 plays per game.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Jerick McKinnon has been among the leading running backs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging an impressive 9.44 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 87th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Jerick McKinnon has compiled a measly -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 7th percentile among RBs.
Jerick McKinnon's pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this year, compiling a mere 5.61 yards-per-target vs a 7.53 mark last year.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.