Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 22

NFL · Player Props

Jerick McKinnon

RB · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 12, 2023 10:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+148/-195).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ +148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jerick McKinnon to garner 4.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Jerick McKinnon has totaled a colossal 3.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Jerick McKinnon's 18.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 8.0.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: least in the league.
Jerick McKinnon's pass-game effectiveness has diminished this season, totaling a mere 7.61 yards-per-target compared to a 9.20 figure last season.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.